Cox Automotive's Q1 2026 EV report quantifies what dealers and OEMs have been describing since the federal EV tax-credit phase-out: a deep US EV demand re-set. EV sales fell 27% year-on-year to 216,399 units, a number that was also 7.8% below Q4 2025 (Cox Automotive Q1 2026 EV Report).
EV share: 5.8%, off the 10.6% peak
The headline that matters for the long arc: EVs accounted for 5.8% of total new-vehicle sales in Q1 2026, unchanged from Q4 2025 but well below the peak of 10.6% logged in Q3 2025. The share collapse maps cleanly onto the loss of the federal EV tax credit and the absorption of late-2025 demand pull-forward.
The post-credit reset is now broadly understood as structural. The April 2026 EV share number is expected to print in a similar band, with possible upside from California-only buyers and a small re-rate as new model-year inventory clears.
The tariff math: $3,800 per vehicle, $35B absorbed
The US auto industry absorbed an estimated $35 billion in tariff costs from 2025, with roughly $3,800 per vehicle in added costs being passed through via MSRP hikes, higher destination fees, and tighter dealer incentives (Cox Automotive April 2026 forecast). That cost stack is now firmly baked into the consumer-facing price.
SAAR: 15.9M, holding above the recession line
The April 2026 seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of new-vehicle sales is estimated at 15.9 million, slightly below the 16.1 million Cox forecast issued before the month closed. April 2025's tariff-lifted 17.1 million SAAR is a deliberately unfavourable comparison. What is reassuring for OEMs is that the 15.9M number held up better than expected against the combination of higher fuel prices, geopolitical volatility and the ongoing tariff drag.
Used EVs surge as new EVs slow
The counter-trend worth flagging: used EV sales surged 12% in Q1 2026 to near-record levels even as new EV sales fell 28% (Electrek, 27 March 2026). The price gap between a 2-3 year old Tesla Model 3 or Model Y and a comparable new ICE crossover has narrowed sharply, and used-EV buyers are now arbitraging the depreciation curve.
What this signals for H2 2026
Three observations. First, the EV demand re-set is now mostly absorbed; the year-over-year comparisons get easier from Q2 onwards. Second, the tariff cost stack is permanent until trade policy changes, which structurally raises the average transaction price and depresses the affordability segment. Third, the used-EV boom plus the new-EV reset together suggest the US EV market is bifurcating into a price-sensitive used cohort and a smaller new-buyer cohort focused on premium and California.
Open the live USA dashboard for monthly registrations, EV share trend, and the Cox + Wards verified data feed.